Death Toll_We represent children with AIDS

THE 14TH International AIDS Conference starts Sunday in Barcelona to the somber echo of the worst-ever projection of the global epidemic's ravages over the next two decades. The United Nations' first long-range forecast of casualties from HIV and AIDS-related illness around the world envisions a death toll of more than 68 million between now and 2020. This is more than triple the number believed to have died of AIDS in the past two decades, and exceeds the 55 million deaths blamed on World War II. There was little encouraging news -- and much to arouse even more concern -- in the new report from the U.N. Program on HIV/AIDS. Worst hit are populations of sub-Sahara Africa, which also are the least equipped to treat the sick and head off new infections. A staggering 39 percent of adult Botswanans have HIV. The epidemic continues to spread, mostly by heterosexual contact. And only tiny proportions of the infected millions receive useful treatment. We are lulled, in the United States, with the fact that the lives of many people with AIDS are prolonged by combinations of drugs to control HIV. But the expensive drugs are scarce in poorer parts of the world. Of the 28.5 million infected people in Africa, fewer than 30,000 were getting anti-HIV treatment at the end of 2001, even though the cost of generic versions of the drugs has been brought below $1 a day. As for reducing the rates of infection through better preventive efforts (Uganda and Zambia report some success), the size of the task is indicated by another U.N. finding that the vast majority of the world's young people have no idea how HIV is transmitted, or how to protect themselves. A much bigger international effort is needed to slow the epidemic and treat the infected in the most threatened countries. Dr. Peter Piot, director of UNAIDS, calls for spending $10 billion a year, up from $3 billion now. That is hardly enough to avoid an even worse prognosis. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmDQHYbVABE

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